Introduction to the Lecture

Over the recent ten-plus years, we have carried out research on disaster forecast of typhoons, the most serious natural disasters in the coastal areas of South China. The main research results are as follows: (1) Typhoon intensity forecast: We have first introduced the land-sea ratio factor, combined with climate sustainability and environmental background field factors, to solve the typhoon intensity forecast problem in the northwest Pacific. We have constructed a multivariate linear regression and machine learning forecast model which integrates the statistical-dynamic forecast model. (2) Typhoon-induced gale forecast: By analyzing the historical gust data and typhoon characteristic data in Shenzhen and its surrounding areas, we have studied the temporal and spatial characteristics of typhoon-induced gales in South China, and established a probability forecast model of local gusts and gales induced by typhoons. (3) Typhoon-induced rainfall forecast: We have classified historical data, analyzed the characteristics of typhoons landing in South China, clarified the temporal and spatial climate characteristics of typhoon-induced rainfall, and established a local rainfall forecast model.

Profile of the Speaker

Dr. Li is a key technology talent of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, overseas high-level talent of Shenzhen, with a doctoral degree in water and environmental engineering from the University of Hong Kong. She is mainly dedicated to the research of meteorological big data, including the forecast and simulation of typhoon-induced wind and rain, the evolution of typhoon offshore intensity, numerical model interpretation and multi-model integrated forecast, global and local climate change, accurate forecast of "Back to the South Weather", and research on the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall and gale in South China. Dr. Li has published more than 50 papers and holds 11 invention patents. She won the China Industry-University-Research Cooperative Innovation Award (Individual) in 2020, and won the first prize of Shenzhen Science and Technology Progress (Public Welfare) as leader of the winning team in 2021.