讲座简介

The proportion of intense tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) has increased. It is demonstrated that the increase of the proportion of intense typhoonsduring 1980-2015 is consistent with the corresponding changes in the ocean/atmosphere environment. The deepening of the ocean mixed layer resulting from the temporal variations and track shifts plays a dominant role in the observed increase of the proportion of intense typhoons. The annual mean latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) over the western North Pacific basin (WNP) has shifted northward since the early 1980s and it is suggested that the shift is due to the northward migration of the mean TC formation location. It is suggested that the observed poleward trend in the mean latitude of LMI is physically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment and TC track. This study also demonstrates that the temporal change in the environmental parameters has little influence on the observed shift of the mean LMI latitude. The poleward migration of the mean LMI latitude is mainly due to the TC track shift, which results primarily from the change in the large-scale steering flow.

主讲人简介

吴立广博士, 复旦大学教授, 博导。南京大学气象系学士、国家海洋环境预报中心硕士、1999年获得美国夏威夷大学气象系博士学位。长期从事与热带气旋相关的研究，包括热带气旋生成、移动、强度结构变化机理、热带气旋活动气候变化和热带气旋季节预报等方面研究。在美国NASA和马里兰大学工作期间，先后主持NASA热带气旋研究项目三项。2008年回国后先后主持和参加国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）、科技部行业专项、国家自然基金重点项目和面上项目，担任国内外学术期刊编辑和审稿专家，发表研究论文100多篇。