Introduction to the Lecture

In recent years, the potential impact of global warming on tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a research hotspot, and most scholars use global climate model as the main tool to predict the future variations of TCs. With the improvement of model resolution, climate models can simulate the vortex structure similar to TCs in the real world. Researchers have started to use the TC identification method to track the TC path. Usually, climate model resolution, central maximum wind speed, central maximum vorticity, warm core structure, cyclone origin and duration are used as the criteria for judging TCs. However, due to the subjectivity of selecting more sea-air environmental variables and setting variable thresholds, it is impossible to distinguish model errors from identification algorithm error, and the uncertainty of such errors will further affect the result of predicting the future variations of TCs. Different from the traditional identification algorithm, this report introduces a TC identification algorithm based on 850hpa relative vorticity, which can effectively identify and track TCs in grid model data with only one variable. Based on ERA5 data from 2002 to 2021, the identification results of this method are compared with CMA of China Meteorological Administration from the perspective of event and statistics, and the performance of this method in identifying and tracking historical TCs is evaluated. Finally, the application of this method to typhoon activity prediction under climate change is envisioned.

Profile of the Speaker

Duan Zhongdong is Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen). He obtained his bachelor's degree, master's degree and doctoral degree in engineering from the Harbin Institute of Technology respectively in 1991, 1994 and 1996. He used to be Professor, Doctoral Supervisor and Deputy Dean of the School of Civil Engineering of the Harbin Institute of Technology. He once served as Deputy Director of the Random Vibration Committee of the Chinese Society of Vibration Engineering and Executive Director and Secretary General of the Heilongjiang Mechanics Society. Prof. Duan is mainly engaged in the risk and risk analysis of natural disasters (typhoons, earthquakes, etc.), stochastic dynamics and reliability of structures, engineering application of probability and statistics methods, wind engineering and ocean engineering. He has undertaken more than 50 national, provincial and ministerial scientific research projects, including the National Outstanding Youth Fund Project (Class B, co-director), major special projects of the National 863 Program, sub-projects of the 973 Program, science and technology support programs and national key R&D programs. In 2004, he was selected into the first group of outstanding talents support programs of the Ministry of Education in the new century, and in 2005, he was awarded the honorary title of outstanding doctoral degree winner who made outstanding contributions by the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense. In addition, he has won the second prize of National Science and Technology Progress Award, the first prize of China University Science and Technology Progress Award and the first prize of invention award. His research results are applied to the first typhoon catastrophe model independently developed by China's insurance/reinsurance industry. Also, Prof. Duan has published more than 180 papers in academic journals, and supervised more than 30 doctoral students and more than 100 master students.