Abstract

Eurasian mid-high latitudes are sensitive regions of global climate change, and changes in vegetation and ecological environment in the middle and high latitudes of Europe and Asia have an important impact on global climate change. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has been rapidly decreasing, and the climate variability mode has also changed in the mid-high latitudes.Scientific question: Does the large-scale mid-high latitude climate variability modality and Arctic sea ice anomaly affect the inter-annual variation of the Eurasian mid-high latitude vegetation and spring dust in northern China? What is the main physical process? Is it possible to improve the climate predictions for Eurasian mid-high latitudes?The research in this paper shows that: 1) The mid-high latitude climate variability mode (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Polar Vortex) has a significant effect on the vegetation growth in different regions of the Eurasian mid-high latitude in spring, and reveals the possible mechanism. 2) Since the mid-1990s, the connection between the sea ice of the Barents Sea and the sea dust in northern China has been significantly enhanced, but the relationship between the two has not been significant, and the reasons and mechanisms are further revealed. 3) Based on the mid-high latitude climate variability mode, Eurasian vegetation change, etc., the interannual incremental prediction method is used to develop the sand dust climate prediction model in northern China and carry out climate prediction, showing better prediction efficiency.

Presenter Profile

Fan Ke, a second-level researcher and doctoral supervisor at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, is a recipient of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (2013). His research interests include climate dynamics and climate prediction, focusing on monsoon, drought, typhoon, dust, extreme weather events and climate prediction theory and method research. He has published nearly one hundred articles in academic journals at home and abroad. He was awarded the National Natural Science Award (second prize) (the second finisher), the 11th China Youth Science and Technology Award, the 7th National Excellent Science and Technology Worker, and the outstanding tutor of the Chinese Academy of Sciences. He is the director of the Statistical Meteorology and Climate Prediction Committee and the executive editor of the Atmospheric Sciences.