讲座简介

The Arctic has experienced dramatic changes over recent decades, and is projected to have ice-free summers by the 2050s in the future climate scenarios. It has been suggested that these changes in environmental conditions have led to an increase in frequencies and intensities of extreme cyclones and related changes in air-sea interactions and upper ocean conditions. Coarse resolution GCMs tend to underestimate the number and intensities of these small-scale systems, and therefore lead to deficiencies in their estimates for the poleward energy transport into the Arctic, and associated surface heat fluxes and radiation associated with clouds. In our study, we conduct simulations of the Arctic weather and climatology using a high-resolution implementation of the Polar WRF3.6, driven by the coarse resolution climate model HadGEM-ES2 outputs, following IPCC5 climate scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5. By end-of-the-century, the (summer) Arctic is expected to be largely ice-free; and surface circulation systems are expected to exhibit different responses in all four seasons, as shown by our simulations. We discuss the atmosphere and ocean circulation responses to cyclones, estimate the changes in the frequency and intensity of related weather systems, and also explore the possible related mechanisms, like wave – ocean coupling etc. Finally, we describe satellite remotely sensed observations collected in field experiments related to this work.

主讲人简介

Will Perrie is a Senior Research Scientist at Bedford Institute of Oceanography and Adjunct Prof at Dalhousie University, Nova University, USA, and NUIST, Nanjing, China. He graduated from MIT, and did postdoctoral work at UBC and NCAR. His work is on modelling and theoretical work related to: wave-ice interactions, marine storms and upper ocean responses, wave –current interactions, climate change, and remote sensing. He is Editor–in–Chief of a leading journal in oceanographic modelling (Ocean Modelling) since 2008.