讲座简介：

Simple climate models translate emissions scenarios into global temperature projections in a fraction of a second. That speed changes which questions can be asked. Thousands of scenarios can be assessed consistently, uncertainty can be sampled rather than assumed, and results can be updated as new data arrive. Using the FaIR model as a worked example, I will describe what a fast, open emulator makes possible, from attribution of present-day warming to different emissions, countries, and even individual companies, to climate assessment of thousands of scenarios submitted to the IPCC. Calibration of the model on Earth System Model data and constraining outputs to observations will be demonstrated, including how for some applications the simpler models can outperform more complex ones. Using chains of simplified models moving from global, to regional, to climate impacts, we can start to build fully integrated scenarios that “close the loop” back to how climate change affects the drivers of socioeconomic change.

主讲人简介：

Chris Smith is a Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. He develops the FaIR simple climate model and its calibration, which link emissions scenarios to global temperature and Earth’s energy imbalance. He is a Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5 of the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report, Working Group I, and contributes to the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change assessment. He co-chairs the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP).

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