讲座简介：

Climate overshoot pathways, in which global mean temperature temporarily exceeds a given warming limit before returning below it, are increasingly central to contemporary mitigation and risk assessment debates. Building on an ample body of recent work on and insights from the world’s first Overshoot Conference at IIASA, I will examine how peak warming, overshoot magnitude and duration, and the feasibility of large-scale carbon dioxide removal jointly shape climate risk profiles. I will highlight that overshoot trajectories are not dynamically equivalent to non-overshoot pathways leading to the same end-of-century temperature, because biogeophysical responses, impact accumulation, and potential tipping processes can exhibit path dependence and limited reversibility on societally relevant timescales. The talk synthesizes emerging evidence on constraints to negative emissions, uncertainties in Earth system feedbacks, and implications for adaptation and loss-and-damage, and discusses the conditions under which overshoot-centered strategies may systematically underestimate long-term risks. It concludes by outlining research and policy priorities for more robust governance of a probable climate overshoot and outline policy implications.

主讲人简介：

Carl-Friedrich Schleussner is a Principal Research Scholar IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program and leads the Integrated Climate Impacts (ICI) Research Group. He is also an Honorary Professor at the Geography Department and the Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems at Humboldt University Berlin.

His research spans a wide range of spheres from extreme climate events and climate impact projections to tipping elements and the societal implications of climate change. Schleussner has a specific interest in scientific questions surrounding the context of international climate negotiations and questions of climate overshoot. He has published extensively on these topics, both in the form of scientific peer-reviewed articles and policy reports. He’s been the lead organizer of the 2025 Overshoot Conference, and is a lead author of the forthcoming IPCC Working Group 1 Assessment Report and the forthcoming UNEP overshoot report.

腾讯会议ID：558-753-095

微博直播：https://weibo.com/u/2404245107