Understanding the implications of global change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires information on geographic patterns of occurrence across the annual cycle. Neotropical migrants that breed in North America and winter in Central America occur in high concentrations on their non-breeding grounds where they spend the majority of the year and where population limiting factors are often more severe. Here, we use eBird data to model weekly patterns of abundance and occurrence for 21 forest passerine species that winter in Central America. We use this information to estimate species’ distributional dynamics and how species associate across the annual cycle with climate and land-use change projections and public protected areas. Although global change is projected to have geographically varying consequences for these species, our findings suggest the most substantial implications will occur on the non-breeding grounds through decreasing summer rainfall and the loss of forested habitats through expanding cropland development. Public protected areas with low and medium protection status are more prevalent where species occur on their non-breeding grounds, suggesting opportunities currently exist to reduce near-term habitat loss during a critical phase of these species’ life cycle, which may prove beneficial over the long term as climate change progresses.