讲座简介

The impact of ozone-depleting substances on global lower-stratospheric temperature trends is widely recognized. In the tropics, however, understanding lower-stratospheric temperature trends has proven more challenging. While the tropical lower-stratospheric cooling observed from 1979 to 1997 has been linked to tropical ozone decreases, those ozone trends cannot be of chemical origin, as active chlorine is not abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere. The 1979–97 tropical ozone trends are believed to originate from enhanced upwelling, which, it is often stated, would be driven by increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases. This study, using simple arguments based on observational evidence after 1997, combined with model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, argues that trends in ozone-depleting substances, not well-mixed greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of temperature and ozone trends in the tropical lower stratosphere until 1997, and this has occurred because ozone-depleting substances are key drivers of tropical upwelling and, more generally, of the entire Brewer–Dobson circulation.

主讲人简介

王蕾（男），复旦大学大气科学研究院青年研究员，哥伦比亚大学拉蒙特-多尔蒂地球观测所兼职副研究员；2010年博士毕业于多伦多大学物理系，从事平流层大气环流的研究；2011-2013年在约翰霍普金斯大学地球与行星科学系从事大气化学-平流层气候耦合方面的研究；2013-2017年在哥伦比亚大学从事大气环流、北极海冰的季节-季节内气候可预报性和平流层长期气候变化方便的研究；2017年12月至今，复旦大学大气科学研究院，目前主要从事北极海冰、中高纬天气-气候的预报与可预报性，以及平流层动力学的研究。个人主页：http://atmsci.fudan.edu.cn/team/wanglei.html